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Post by Cali on Mar 11, 2013 23:18:01 GMT 1
Tillian and I have been talking about this for a while now, and I still stand by the belief that the industry has quite a chance of tanking pretty sharply in the next few years. All the signs are practically there, and this guy pretty much explains it to a tee:
Mind you, that the industry crash of 1983 did not stop the vidya in its tracks completely. The Commodore 64 game scene was at its height, from what I hear. So maybe a strong indie scene would rise in its place until the next Nintendo comes on stage.
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Post by jklinders on Mar 12, 2013 0:12:17 GMT 1
It's a pretty good bet. I think what is about to happen is that it will get too expensive to make the AAA for the market to pay for and the big dev money will dry up. If it happens then it will actually be at least the third crash as there was one back in 98-2000, albeit smaller.
it will be good for the indie industry for a bit and maybe a bit of fresh blood will get some new ideas flowing.
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Post by Tillian Panthesis on Mar 12, 2013 15:05:26 GMT 1
There's one other factor that Clever Noob missed it. That is during 1983, the economy climate was pretty bad, although still not as bad as now.
Where I'm getting at? Besides the consumer's being picky on spending money, the other culprit for the Vidya's crash is the completely poor judgement on coping the rough waves of the economy. Most smart companies in the other industry sectors, would find ways to minimise the risk with their investments and bunker themselves down until the tide has calm down. What the Video Games industry did at the time was continuing to try and force shove the consumers down their throat with their products. Not only it's a bad time to do it, since people were really concern with their money for the basic needs like grocery and what not; but also they are force shoving them with really shit games. Tons of them.
This is when the similarities starting to show, like a bunch of nasty sores filled with pus, that no one want to acknowledge until it's too late(?). If the Sony PS4 presentation indicates anything, is that the current industry didn't learn about weathering the economic tides carefully, like the recession were underway. Here are some quotes I've remember from the top of my head during the presentation it stands out (sorry if it's inaccurate):
The consumers have suffered from a fatigue, due to lingering out the last generation from far to long
Well, have they ever consider the current recession plays a major factor into this? I bet that the consumers have other problems like struggling to buy bread and butter and the last thing they want is buy a console that cost like a grand (in Australia, the PS3 cost like $1000 at the time it first release). It doesn't help that I know a lot of people are already struggling either to keep their job or getting a new one because they got sacked due to this vicious recession climate, thus even more reason to keep tight on the cash.
That's not even touching the large mediocre library that plague's the current games library, that added some "fatigue" in the average gamer. But the vid had already covers that.
As for what happens if the industry crash, I think there will be more focus on PC development in the future, due to the ease in the development process with the lack the needs to try and port to a console hardware and less costly in the long run since they won't need to pay some fees to get the console manufacturer' approval to go gold. Also there will be a push to get the PC box into the living room, thus the days of the console would be merely just a history text where all future game students read off from their text book.
That's my two cent.
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Post by lieden on Mar 12, 2013 21:31:28 GMT 1
I would DEFINITELY like to see more PC-focused game development in the future. IMHO, console-oriented game design dumps everything down, even when it comes to a game's interface. (Skyrim was a sad example of that.)
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Post by Tillian Panthesis on Mar 15, 2013 16:25:25 GMT 1
It may sound like I'm dissing consoles recently on the forums, but to be honest I don't hate them. My favourite games in my childhood were mostly consoles exclusives, such as Okami, SCIII, Zelda: OoT, Super Mario 64, Banjo-Kazooie, Mischief Makers, Alex Kidd in the Miricle World, Shinobi, Secret of Mana and... too many to list sadly.
However, the reason why consoles were more relevant back then, aside from its accessibility and user friendliness, is that the games were exclusive to the consoles, to the point that some of the game elements would not have worked well if being ported to the PC, such as fighting games. Honestly, unless there's a arcade joystick for the PC at the time, I would hate to play fighting games on it. And in my bias opinion, I prefer to play Okami on the PS2, rather then the PC at the time, due to the design seems fitting for the console.
However, games now days are less exclusive, to the point that most of my library games are PC version if given the chance. And with the consoles seemed to too complex and a tad counter-intuitive at times with it's sole functioning purpose (I'm looking at you and your social interface focus Sony. I want to play just the games, I do not care about getting in touch with some stranger on the net, that's what my PC is USE FOR.) The line between PC and consoles seemed to blur for me and the graphics didn't help for the most part. The only difference with PC and the console version is probably some improved textures, SFX and normal mapping, but that's about it really. Gameplay wise, it doesn't change much in it's performance, at least not in the drastic sense as those FPS in the Quake and Unreal games in those times, where good technology is a must for a good edge against other players or the game itself.
Then there's the rise of the indie developers that kind of cause some ruffles. Without the restrictions imposed by consoles by the development's kit, policies and fees, indie developers would prefer the PC as their developing platform of choice. Not to mention with a good collection of game design software libraries, such as RPG maker, flash, Unity, Game Maker, etc; on the PC makes their stay on the platform more comfortable. Especially when there's a good amount of communities that share and discuss about the inner workings of those development software. I'm not sure, but I don't think that AAA developers would have a chance to get some information about their console development kits easier, since most of them would probably would like to keep their knowledge to themselves, in fear of the competition. They had to talk directly to the console manufacturers if they have certain problems they could not comprehend, that's what I've remembered back in Uni, when a Veteran complains about the process of it.
Now adding the factor with the current recession and the declining sales, it seems like the consoles are on thin ice these days. A single wrong move would cause more damage than they wanted it, to the point that PC will take the mantle as the major leading force in games. I'm not saying that consoles are going to die off very soon and they do have a chance to get out of this one, but the way things are and how many missteps they made in the past months... I'm not surprised if things get busted.
Then again I'm writing this at 2:30 am, so I might be wrong.
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